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FY2025 sales-tax revenue modeled
For the VTA evaluation committee
This platform is not a brochure. Every module is a working analysis built on VTA's own public data, designed so the committee can verify, not just read about, House Strategies Group's command of Area (i) advanced financial modeling and Area (iii) finance transformation. This page maps each module to the evaluation criteria and to the published scope.
Built on VTA's real public record
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Section one
RFP S26082 weights Qualifications & Experience (20), Staffing & Project Organization (30), and Work Plan & Project Understanding (30). Each platform module below answers at least one of those criteria with evidence the committee can open and inspect, and ties to the in-scope Areas (i) and (iii) that House Strategies Group is bidding.
| Platform module | What it demonstrates | Evaluation criterion | Wt. | Area |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales-Tax Forecast | A predictive model of VTA's largest revenue source, fit on 29 years of county taxable sales and stress-tested across three scenarios. | Work Plan & Project Understanding | 30 | (i) & (iii) |
| Network & Ridership Map | Command of the operating context, the routes, stops, and rail network the financial plan has to fund. | Work Plan & Project Understanding | 30 | (i) |
| Equity & Access | Tract-level transit-dependence and access analysis, the lens VTA applies to service and capital decisions. | Project Understanding | 30 | (i) |
| Capital / SCIP | The capital program, fund structure, and state-of-good-repair backlog, with a funding-scenario engine. | Work Plan & Project Understanding | 30 | (i) |
| Long-Range Model | A multi-year operating and revenue model, the core deliverable of long-range financial planning support. | Work Plan & Project Understanding | 30 | (i) |
| Peer Benchmarks | VTA against comparable large transit agencies on farebox and cost per trip, the benchmarking depth behind qualified analysis. | Qualifications & Experience | 20 | (i) |
| Finance Transformation | Working tools for AI & automation workflow assessment, automated invoice-to-contract validation, and indirect cost rate review. | Qualifications & Experience · Staffing & Organization | 20 / 30 | (iii) |
Criterion weights from VTA RFP S26082. Each module name links to the live analysis. Data sources are cited on each module page.
Section two
House Strategies Group bids two of the on-call Areas. For every key scope bullet in Area (i) and Area (iii), the platform shows a module or working tool that proves the capability on real VTA data, not a claim the committee has to take on faith.
| Scope element | Portal module / proof |
|---|---|
| Long-range financial modeling | Long-Range Model: multi-year operating and revenue projection |
| SCIP (Strategic Capital Investment Plan) support | Capital / SCIP: fund structure, SGR backlog, funding-scenario engine |
| SRTP (Short Range Transit Plan) forecasting | Sales-Tax Forecast + Long-Range Model: near-term revenue and operating projections |
| VTP / long-range transportation planning | Capital / SCIP: VTP 2050 project list and program-level cost view |
| Revenue valuation & alternative sourcing | Sales-Tax Forecast + Peer Benchmarks: revenue exposure and farebox comparison |
Scope elements summarized from VTA RFP S26082, Area (i). Underlying data: CDTFA, FRED/BLS, VTA ACFR FY2025, VTA SCIP FY22-41, VTP 2050, FTA NTD.
| Scope element | Portal module / proof |
|---|---|
| CFO business process improvement | Finance Transformation: workflow assessment and automation roadmap |
| Indirect cost rate reasonableness | Finance Transformation: wrap-rate decomposition and benchmark review tool |
| AI & automation workflow assessment | Finance Transformation: interactive CFO-group automation scorecard |
| Predictive analytics tooling | Sales-Tax Forecast: deployed predictive model with prediction intervals |
Scope elements summarized from VTA RFP S26082, Area (iii). Validator pattern reflects HSG's automated FHA premium-validation work for HUD; see proposal for reference detail.
Section three
House Strategies Group's deepest reference base is federal financial services, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Ginnie Mae, and the Department of Veterans Affairs, not transit. The committee should weigh that plainly.
What carries directly into VTA's work is the discipline, not the sector. The automated checker our project manager built for HUD validated FHA mortgage-insurance premium payments against insurance-policy terms, converting a manual, document-heavy review into an audited control. That is the same engine behind the invoice-to-contract validator on the Finance Transformation page. Our capital-markets analytics, revenue modeling, and indirect-rate review came out of mortgage and loan-sale advisory, and they transfer cleanly to sales-tax revenue, capital-program funding, and consultant-rate reasonableness for a transit CFO.
This platform exists to close the transit-domain gap in the open. Every module is built on VTA's own published data: the ACFR, CDTFA taxable sales, the SCIP and VTP project lists, FTA National Transit Database metrics, and Census ACS tracts. It is direct evidence that the firm has done the transit homework, on VTA's numbers, before the first task order.
HUD MFIOB premium-payment validation: an automated control that confirmed FHA mortgage-insurance premiums matched policy terms, replacing a manual review. The transit context here is new; the method is not.
Federal financial-services reference base: HUD, Ginnie Mae, VA. Full reference detail is in the S26082 proposal.
Adopt the three-scenario sales-tax forecast and long-range operating model as VTA's standing planning tools, so capital and operating commitments are tested against a downside, not a single point estimate.
Deploy the compliance validator against VTA's on-call contracts so every consultant invoice is checked against ceiling, rate caps, and allowable categories before payment, with an audit trail for each exception.
This platform was prepared independently by House Strategies Group LLC from public data, to demonstrate analytical approach for RFP S26082. It is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority. Figures shown on the module pages are derived from the cited public sources and are illustrative of method; they refine when validated against VTA's internal data in engagement. Where a model is shown, its specification, fit, and out-of-sample error are disclosed on the page so the committee can judge it on its merits.
Sources cited on each module page include: VTA ACFR FY2025, CDTFA Taxable Sales in California, FRED/BLS, VTA SCIP FY22-41, VTP 2050, FTA National Transit Database, and U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year.
This platform is the analytical companion to House Strategies Group's response to RFP S26082. Start from the overview and open any module to inspect the analysis, the method, and the sources behind it.
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